Dr. Emrick's Books and Articles
A Math Model for Community Diabetes – Healthcare Leadership & Management
After weeks of trial and error, I finally worked all the code
bugs out of an interactive community diabetes math model based on a peer-reviewed
article by Andriyana and Abdulah (2025). The interactive model that I designed is
a mathematical model for community-based intervention for managing diabetes.
Here is the peer review article link: https://doi.org/10.2147/JMDH.S510753
To code and build the model, I analyzed modeling behavior as
presented by the authors. I then set out
to create a working, interactive model that a county health team could actually
use at the planning table. My north star was straightforward: translate the
paper’s core insights into a tool that lets a small team test combined
strategies, see local impact, and stress-test assumptions about adoption and
fidelity before spending money in the field.
Three messages from the review shaped my model blueprint.
First, combined strategies beat single levers when communities carry a heavy
burden of obesity and physical inactivity. The Qatar modeling work, for
example, shows that when policy and behavior change move together, long-run
incidence and cost trends bend more visibly than with any single intervention
alone. Second, diet change only works on a scale when plans honor local
foodways, price, and availability; goal-programming studies on culturally
familiar menus make that concrete. Third, awareness and access are complements.
Optimal-control models that treat media campaigns and treatment capacity as
time-varying levers find the largest benefits when both move upward together.
So, go ahead and give it a try!
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